Like so many who suffer from OCED (Obsessive Compulsive Election Disorder) I’ve become addicted to the daily poll updates from fivethirtyeight.com. Each day Nate Silver, who is apparently a well known baseball statistician, provides commentary on the daily polls. He gives a table of all of the major polls and offers a thoughtful discussion on how they came to their numbers. Millions (mostly dems, I’m sure) follow his site, eagerly awaiting the statistical analysis he can provide.
His analysis offers more than just comfort about the election, and more than just a way to understand these polls. It offers a view into the scientific process. I’ve spent the past year studying the disconnect between science and society. It has been approached differently under different titles, ranging from ’science literacy’ to ‘public engagement with science,’ but there have been few, if any, examples in which a group of people were so eager to understand something so completely.
And the story Nate Silver tells them is not the glossed over, clean, and CORRECT version of science they are used to. It is the messy version in which validity is separated from correctness. He takes his readers into the minds of the pollsters, he talks about how they did their sampling and why they made the choices they made. He tells us that these are valid ways of coming up with these numbers, but that doesn’t mean the numbers are going to be right. He also calls bullshit when a pollster uses measurements he doesn’t agree with, and he explains why he thinks it is bullshit.
I think Silver has opened a black box here. I think that if there is a way, those of us in the Public Understanding of Science game should jump on this bandwagon. The lesson for the public, and for us, is that talking about processes instead of process, giving the actual debate, could open up some closed lines of communication. That could lead to more trust.
Of course I could be full of shit. The only people going to fivethirtyeight.com could be pretty educated people who want to know if Obama will will. But what if Silver ran the same kind of site for something that appeals to different people, like baseball stats. I have no idea how they work, but if they are anything like the stats he is running now, they could help start a rich conversation about how different statisticians get different numbers.
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